April investment report: Resilience amid global uncertainty

Welcome to April’s edition of the True Potential Investment Report, where we look at recent developments shaped by a mix of geopolitical events and shifting economic conditions, and what they could mean for investors.

Key themes at a glance:

• Geopolitical uncertainty remains in focus: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are keeping energy prices elevated, which could add to inflation, though we remain hopeful impacts may be short‑lived.
• Europe faces renewed pressure: Europe’s economic outlook had been improving, but higher energy prices are now weighing on growth. That said, increased spending plans in Germany are helping to underpin the region’s economy.
• Valuations look more reasonable: Share prices are now closer to their long‑term averages. However, the US remains more expensive than other regions, supported by continued strength in company earnings.
• Neutral positioning across markets: We continue to take a neutral view across major asset classes. Within equities, we favour non‑US markets where valuations are more attractive. In fixed income, we see value in UK gilts, while remaining mindful of the political backdrop.

Global economic backdrop

Although a ceasefire is currently in place, the conflict involving Iran continues to cloud what had been a relatively positive global economic picture. If the Strait of Hormuz were to remain closed, this could push energy prices higher again and add to inflation, which would be unhelpful for global markets. Countries that rely heavily on imported energy — including Europe, the UK and parts of Asia — are particularly exposed. While we hope any disruption proves short‑lived and energy prices ease back, the situation remains uncertain.

US outlook

The US economy is expected to remain resilient, particularly in the first half of the year, as the impact of President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act continues to work its way through the economy. That said, a cooling jobs market and higher fuel costs are creating some pressure for households. With midterm elections approaching in November, the administration is likely to focus on addressing these concerns. More positively, strong investment in artificial intelligence, healthy company profits and high underlying productivity are continuing to support growth.

European outlook

Europe’s economic recovery has been making steady progress, but rising energy prices are starting to pose a challenge. These could dampen consumer spending and may also put upward pressure on interest rates, slowing economic momentum. Offsetting this to some extent, increased government spending in Germany on infrastructure and defence is helping to support growth across the region.

Equities and valuations

US shares initially proved more resilient than global markets following the outbreak of the Iran war, but this strength has since faded. Equity valuations are now closer to their long-term averages, but the US is still relatively expensive compared with other regions. Outside the US, company earnings may be more exposed to the ongoing impact of the conflict.

Our positioning

We continue to take a neutral stance across asset classes. Within equities, we still prefer stocks listed outside the US. Our focus remains firmly on companies that can deliver earnings growth to justify their share prices.

In fixed income, UK gilts offer more value than US Treasuries, although they are not without risk, particularly given the political backdrop. In alternative investments, performance has been uneven, so careful and selective positioning remains essential.

With investing, your capital is at risk. Investments can fluctuate in value and you may get back less than you invest.

This material is not a personal recommendation or financial advice and the investments referred to may not be suitable for all investors.

Opinions, interpretations and conclusions represent the views of True Potential Investments at the date of publication and are subject to change. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results.

All data sourced from Bloomberg L.P. (30/04/2026)

True Potential Investments LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FRN 527444. Registered in England and Wales as a Limited Liability Partnership No. OC356027.

True Potential LLP is registered in England and Wales as a Limited Liability Partnership No. OC380771.